Russia since 1985: a "Transition"Economy?
This course aims to provide an understanding of the process of economic change in Russia during the years since 1985 through a direct study of historical statistical data and primary sources.The course has evolved in the context of a new research initiative being currently undertaken in Economic and Social History into secular patterns of economic development in Russia and the Soviet Union from 1700 to the present day. On the basis of research currently in hand, it is intended to prepare a reliable national income series for the period, since 1985 extending work already undertaken which has been published and presented at a session organized at the BASEES Conference held at FitzWilliam College, Cambridge in 1999, together with an analysis of the economic changes taking place in the USSR (1985-1991) and Russian Federation (since 1991/2- ) to examine whether they truly conform to the concept of "an economy in transition" to a new phase of growth within a free-market structure or whether it is more accurately represented as an antiquated structure in a state of "free-fall".
It involves data collection, often from materials deliberately presented in both East and West with the aim of misinformation, and an analysis of interpretations, often created in the same spirit, with the objective of determining not only objective reality but also the motivation behind the presentation of such misinformation. In such a manner students will develop an understanding of problems concerning the validity and reliability of available data emanating from Russia and Western agencies involved therein, learn methods of contextual analysis and interrogation, and gain insights into how to conceptualize and analyse such materials, utilizing both political science and economics methodology - all highly transferable skills. The course complements but does not overlap with others currently being presented
READING FOR COURSE
Statistical: The complete series of Russian statistical handbooks from 1985 to 1999 (microfilms of which are in my possession). Abstracted materials from which will be available on the departmental web-site.
USSR, TsSU. Narodnoe Khozyaistvo SSSR, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991 Russian Federation, GKS. Narodnoe Khozyaistvo, 1992 Rossiya v tsifrakh, 1995-1998, 1999 Rossiya, 1993, 1995 Rossiskii Statisticheski Ezhegodnik 1994 & 1995 1996 1997 1998 Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 1998 & 1999
Current handbooks, which are available on the NEW Goskomstat net site http://www.gks.ru/eng/ , at least in the abbreviated English language form- that of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. http://www.cbr.ru/eng/ , the Agro-Economic Society. http://www.user.cityline.ru/~vmlca/ and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation- http://www.mcx.ru (Russian only)
Newspapers and Economic Reports: (Entered the 10th August 2007, 10.12)
NEWS: It's good to start the day by viewing RT. Russia Today (Sky 516) but always remember it's a BBC programme and for a far (!!!!!) more objective programme on what's happening in the Russian economy you should watch Bloomberg (Sky 502), and consult the "Financial Times", http://www.ft.com/home/europe (for which we now have a subscription) "Economist" and Economic Reports, RIA Novosti- http://www.rian.ru- edited site; Moscow Times: Business section - http://www.themoscowtimes.ru/ - and "Kommersant"- http://www.kommersant.com , Institute for the Economy in Transition, Moscow http://www.iet.ru/index2.html and the IET Analytical Centre Agri-Food Economy http://www.iet.ru/index2.html; RECEP- "Russian Economic Trends-Monthly"- Suspended; Economics Education & Research Consortium: Russia http://www.eerc.ru/publications/e-prints/e-prints.htm . "Eurasia Daily Monitor", Jamestown Foundation- http://www.jamestown.org- occasional consultation of essentially political publication. The Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition: (1) "Russian Economy: The Month in Review" (2) "The Russian and Baltic Economies: The Week in Review" - http://www.bof.fi/bofit/eng/index.stm
Background Political & Economic Reading A Bergson, Planning and performance in socialist economies: the USSR and eastern Europe (Boston, 1989) EUL .3389(437-498) Ber S White, Gorbachev in power (Cambridge, 1990) EUL .9(47085) Gor. Whi M Ellman and Vladimir Kantorovich (eds.), The Disintegration of the Soviet Economic System (London, 1992) EUL .33 (47085) Dis A Brown, The Gorbachev Factor (Oxford, 1997)EUL DK 288 Bro O Blanchard, The Economics of Post-Communist Transition (Oxford, 1997) EUL HC 244 Bla M Cox (ed.) Rethinking the Soviet Collapse: Sovietology, the death of communism and the new Russia (London, 1998) EUL DK 266. A33. Ret As well as journal articles and working-papers available from the home-pages of scholars currently working on this subject, e.g. Mark Harrison
LECTURES AND SEMINARS
CLASS TIMES LECTURE TUESDAY, 11.10, RM GO3, WRB TUTORIAL 1 MONDAY. 14.00, RM 217, WRB TUTORIAL 2 TUESDAY 12.00, RM 217, WRB TUTORIAL 3 TUESDAY 14.00, RM 217, WRB
CLASS TIMES
LECTURE TUESDAY, 11.10, RM GO3, WRB TUTORIAL 1 MONDAY. 14.00, RM 217, WRB TUTORIAL 2 TUESDAY 12.00, RM 217, WRB TUTORIAL 3 TUESDAY 14.00, RM 217, WRB
PAST PAPERS: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
1 Russian Economic Development in Historical Perspective
I Blanchard, "Le développement économique en perspective historique: l'avenir de la Russie à la lumière de son évolution à l'époque moderene (1700-1914)" in Michèle Merger et Dominique Barjot (eds.), Les enterprises et leurs réseaux: hommes, capitaux, techniques et pouvoirs xixe-xxe siècles. Mèlanges en l'honneur de François Caron (Paris: Presse de l' Université de Paris-Sorbonne, 1998), pp.381-392. An English translation entitled "Russian and Soviet Economic Development in Historical Perspective, c. 1700-1998" will be found in Elspeth Reid et aliis (eds.) Edinburgh Essays: Russia on the Edge of the Millenium. Introduction by Dennis Ward. (Nottingham, 2000) EUL KN4:1Ed M Harrison, "Economic growth and slowdown," paper to the annual conference of the British Association for Slavonic and East European Studies, Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge, 7 to 9 April, 2001 (draft chapter for Edwin Bacon and Mark Sandle, eds, Brezhnev reconsidered, Macmillan: London and Basingstoke, in preparation): revised 8 April 2001available on http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/harrison A Bergson, Planning and performance in socialist economies: the USSR and eastern Europe (Boston, 1989)EUL .3389(437-498) Ber
I Blanchard, "Le développement économique en perspective historique: l'avenir de la Russie à la lumière de son évolution à l'époque moderene (1700-1914)" in Michèle Merger et Dominique Barjot (eds.), Les enterprises et leurs réseaux: hommes, capitaux, techniques et pouvoirs xixe-xxe siècles. Mèlanges en l'honneur de François Caron (Paris: Presse de l' Université de Paris-Sorbonne, 1998), pp.381-392. An English translation entitled "Russian and Soviet Economic Development in Historical Perspective, c. 1700-1998" will be found in Elspeth Reid et aliis (eds.) Edinburgh Essays: Russia on the Edge of the Millenium. Introduction by Dennis Ward. (Nottingham, 2000) EUL KN4:1Ed
M Harrison, "Economic growth and slowdown," paper to the annual conference of the British Association for Slavonic and East European Studies, Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge, 7 to 9 April, 2001 (draft chapter for Edwin Bacon and Mark Sandle, eds, Brezhnev reconsidered, Macmillan: London and Basingstoke, in preparation): revised 8 April 2001available on http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/harrison
A Bergson, Planning and performance in socialist economies: the USSR and eastern Europe (Boston, 1989)EUL .3389(437-498) Ber
2 Gorbachev, the Soviet Economy and the "Defence Burden", 1985-1991
H S Rowen & C Wolf Jnr (eds.), The Impoverished Super power. Perestroika and the Soviet Military Burden (San Francisco: Institute of Contemporary Studies, 1990) EUL UA770 Imp.
3 Political and Economic Collapse, 1991
M Ellman and Vladimir Kantorovich (eds.), The Disintegration of the Soviet Economic System (London, 1992) EUL .33(47085) DIS M Cox (ed.) Rethinking the Soviet Collapse: Sovietology, the death of communism and the new Russia (London, 1998) EUL DK266. A33. Ret M Harrison, "Are command economies unstable? Why did the Soviet economy collapse?" paper to the second Oxford-Houston conference on "Initial conditions and Russia's transitional economy", University of Houston, 19 to 21 April 2001: revised 3 May 2001 and "Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy," University of Warwick, Department of Economics: revised 1 March 2001, now published under the same tital in Economic History Review, LV, 3 (August 2002), pages397-433. All the above papers are available on http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/harrison Valery Lazarev, "Evolution of the Soviet Elite and its Post-Communist Transformation" (University of Houston and Hoover Institute, June 2001) available as PERSA paper on http://www.soviet-archives-research.co.uk/ Macro Economics 1992-2001 N Ferguson & B Granville, " 'Weimar on the Volga': Causes and Consequences of Inflation in 1990s Russia Compared with 1920s Germany," Journal of Economic History, LX, 4 (2000)
M Ellman and Vladimir Kantorovich (eds.), The Disintegration of the Soviet Economic System (London, 1992) EUL .33(47085) DIS
M Cox (ed.) Rethinking the Soviet Collapse: Sovietology, the death of communism and the new Russia (London, 1998) EUL DK266. A33. Ret
M Harrison, "Are command economies unstable? Why did the Soviet economy collapse?" paper to the second Oxford-Houston conference on "Initial conditions and Russia's transitional economy", University of Houston, 19 to 21 April 2001: revised 3 May 2001 and "Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy," University of Warwick, Department of Economics: revised 1 March 2001, now published under the same tital in Economic History Review, LV, 3 (August 2002), pages397-433. All the above papers are available on http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/harrison
Valery Lazarev, "Evolution of the Soviet Elite and its Post-Communist Transformation" (University of Houston and Hoover Institute, June 2001) available as PERSA paper on http://www.soviet-archives-research.co.uk/
Macro Economics 1992-2001 N Ferguson & B Granville, " 'Weimar on the Volga': Causes and Consequences of Inflation in 1990s Russia Compared with 1920s Germany," Journal of Economic History, LX, 4 (2000)
Macro Economics 1992-2001
N Ferguson & B Granville, " 'Weimar on the Volga': Causes and Consequences of Inflation in 1990s Russia Compared with 1920s Germany," Journal of Economic History, LX, 4 (2000)
4-6 Budgetary Deficits and Money Creation, January 1992-July 1995. Monetary Stabilization and Increased Indebtedness, August 1995-July 1998. Devaluation and Debt Restructuring, August 1998-
V Koen & S Philipps, "Price Liberalisation in Russia, Behaviour of Prices, Household Incomes and Consumption during the First Year" IMF Occasional Paper, No 6, January 1994 and V Koen, "Measuring the Transition: A User's View on National Accounts in Russia," IMF Working Paper, no.104 (1993) M Boyko & A Shliefer, "The Russian Restructuring and Social Benefits" in A Åsland (ed.) Russian Economic Reform at Risk (London, 1995) B Granville, The Success of the Russian Economic Reforms (London: RIIA, 1995) NLS QP1.96.79 S Commander & A Tolstopiatenko, "Characteristics of the Russian Labour Market", C Grafe & K Richter, "Taxation and Public Expenditure" and B Granville, "The Problem of Monetary Stabilization" in B Granville and P Oppenheimer (eds.), Russia's Post-Communist Economy (Oxford, 2000) M Ellman & R Scharrenborg, " The Russian Economic Crisis," Economic and Political Weekly, XXXIII, 52 (Dec 26 1998) Micro Economics, 1992-2001
V Koen & S Philipps, "Price Liberalisation in Russia, Behaviour of Prices, Household Incomes and Consumption during the First Year" IMF Occasional Paper, No 6, January 1994 and V Koen, "Measuring the Transition: A User's View on National Accounts in Russia," IMF Working Paper, no.104 (1993)
M Boyko & A Shliefer, "The Russian Restructuring and Social Benefits" in A Åsland (ed.) Russian Economic Reform at Risk (London, 1995)
B Granville, The Success of the Russian Economic Reforms (London: RIIA, 1995) NLS QP1.96.79
S Commander & A Tolstopiatenko, "Characteristics of the Russian Labour Market", C Grafe & K Richter, "Taxation and Public Expenditure" and B Granville, "The Problem of Monetary Stabilization" in B Granville and P Oppenheimer (eds.), Russia's Post-Communist Economy (Oxford, 2000)
M Ellman & R Scharrenborg, " The Russian Economic Crisis," Economic and Political Weekly, XXXIII, 52 (Dec 26 1998)
Micro Economics, 1992-2001
7-8 Agriculture and Food Supply; Industrial Collapse
O Blanchard, The Economics of Post-Communist Transition (Oxford, 1997) EUL HC 244 Bla J Channon, Agrarian Reforms in Russia, 1992-5 (London: RIIA, 1995) NLS QP4.96.489 R Solow (ed.) Unlocking Economic Growth in Russia (Moscow: McKinsey Global Institute, 1999). http://www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/reports/russia1099.asp Alexander Varshavsky "Macroeconomic Aggregate Model for Analysis of Inflation and Stabilization of the Russian Economy" http://www.eerc.ru/publications/e-prints/e-prints.htm Byung-Yeon Kim, Jukka Pirttilä, Jouko Rautava "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia" Bofit Discussian Papers Nro 15 /2001 http://www.bof.fi/bofit/eng/index.stm V. Kryukov & A Moe, Gazprom: Internal Structure, Management Principles and Financial Flows [ NLS QP2. 97.3619] and New Russian Corporatism? A Case Study of Gazprom (London: RIIA, 1996) NLS QP4.97.523 T Gustafson, Crisis Amidst Plenty: The Politics of Soviet Energy under Brezhnev and Gorbachev (Princeton: Princeton UP, 1989) NLS Q3.90.1579 J I Consadine and W A Kerr, The Russian Oil Economy (Cheltenham, 2002) PROJECTS Students will be required to undertake project work to be submitted at the end of Semester 2. The 2004/5 Project will be chosen from either"Feeding the Russian People: The First Ten Years, 1990-2000" details of which can be found by double clicking on the project title or "The Russian Oil Industry, 1994-2006"details of which can be found by double clicking on the project title Some hints on project presentation 1. The project is the most important formal piece of work you will do. To some extent it is an extension of the tutorial, designed to test your ability to draw together the information found in primary source materials and to assess and assimilate them into an answer. You should formulate YOUR OWN IDEAS as to what issues are to be analysed, and above all present your arguments IN YOUR OWN WORDS, clearly and concisely. Plan your argument carefully and make sure that a new paragraph represents a new direction in your thoughts and not just the place you paused for coffee. IT IS VITALLY IMPORTANT NOT TO INCORPORATE CHUNKS FROM SECONDARY MATERIALS VERBATIM INTO YOUR PAPER. Unacknowledged copying is always penalised. (The rare event of copying from other students is now, in work which contributes to an overall class grade, defined by the Faculty as a University disciplinary offence.) We place a strong emphasis on originality and there is no 'right' answer on any topic, but the literature and lectures are there to provide you with the means of formulating your ideas, and should never be ignored; if you want to reinterpret your subject, you must demonstrate the inadequacies of the existing materials by reasoned argument. Above all, avoid irrelevance and unsupported assertion. 2. Use A4 paper. Number all pages. Make sure your own name is on the front page and also your tutor's name. Head the essay with the exact title of the topic you have chosen to study. 3. LEAVE MARGINS SUITABLE FOR THE TUTOR'S COMMENTS ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE, and please write only on ONE SIDE of the paper. 4. Legibility is important. We encourage you to type, and double-spacing is especially welcome. 5. You should give careful attention to spelling and punctuation, and not use abbreviations (eg 'WWI', 'govt', 'NI' etc). If you know you are weak in spelling, make a point of consulting a dictionary. 6. Right from the start it is a good idea in your writing to get used to following a few normal scholarly conventions. If you take phrases or sentences from other authors, put them in quotation marks and footnote the source, including the page number. At the end of the essay include a list of the works you have read for the essay, following the style of the essay handouts (books and journal titles underlined, journal articles titles in quotation marks, year and/or volume number for journal articles etc).
O Blanchard, The Economics of Post-Communist Transition (Oxford, 1997) EUL HC 244 Bla
J Channon, Agrarian Reforms in Russia, 1992-5 (London: RIIA, 1995) NLS QP4.96.489
R Solow (ed.) Unlocking Economic Growth in Russia (Moscow: McKinsey Global Institute, 1999). http://www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/reports/russia1099.asp
Alexander Varshavsky "Macroeconomic Aggregate Model for Analysis of Inflation and Stabilization of the Russian Economy" http://www.eerc.ru/publications/e-prints/e-prints.htm
Byung-Yeon Kim, Jukka Pirttilä, Jouko Rautava "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia" Bofit Discussian Papers Nro 15 /2001 http://www.bof.fi/bofit/eng/index.stm
V. Kryukov & A Moe, Gazprom: Internal Structure, Management Principles and Financial Flows [ NLS QP2. 97.3619] and New Russian Corporatism? A Case Study of Gazprom (London: RIIA, 1996) NLS QP4.97.523
T Gustafson, Crisis Amidst Plenty: The Politics of Soviet Energy under Brezhnev and Gorbachev (Princeton: Princeton UP, 1989) NLS Q3.90.1579
J I Consadine and W A Kerr, The Russian Oil Economy (Cheltenham, 2002)
Students will be required to undertake project work to be submitted at the end of Semester 2. The 2004/5 Project will be chosen from either"Feeding the Russian People: The First Ten Years, 1990-2000" details of which can be found by double clicking on the project title or "The Russian Oil Industry, 1994-2006"details of which can be found by double clicking on the project title
Some hints on project presentation
1. The project is the most important formal piece of work you will do. To some extent it is an extension of the tutorial, designed to test your ability to draw together the information found in primary source materials and to assess and assimilate them into an answer. You should formulate YOUR OWN IDEAS as to what issues are to be analysed, and above all present your arguments IN YOUR OWN WORDS, clearly and concisely. Plan your argument carefully and make sure that a new paragraph represents a new direction in your thoughts and not just the place you paused for coffee. IT IS VITALLY IMPORTANT NOT TO INCORPORATE CHUNKS FROM SECONDARY MATERIALS VERBATIM INTO YOUR PAPER. Unacknowledged copying is always penalised. (The rare event of copying from other students is now, in work which contributes to an overall class grade, defined by the Faculty as a University disciplinary offence.) We place a strong emphasis on originality and there is no 'right' answer on any topic, but the literature and lectures are there to provide you with the means of formulating your ideas, and should never be ignored; if you want to reinterpret your subject, you must demonstrate the inadequacies of the existing materials by reasoned argument. Above all, avoid irrelevance and unsupported assertion.
2. Use A4 paper. Number all pages. Make sure your own name is on the front page and also your tutor's name. Head the essay with the exact title of the topic you have chosen to study.
3. LEAVE MARGINS SUITABLE FOR THE TUTOR'S COMMENTS ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE, and please write only on ONE SIDE of the paper.
4. Legibility is important. We encourage you to type, and double-spacing is especially welcome.
5. You should give careful attention to spelling and punctuation, and not use abbreviations (eg 'WWI', 'govt', 'NI' etc). If you know you are weak in spelling, make a point of consulting a dictionary.
6. Right from the start it is a good idea in your writing to get used to following a few normal scholarly conventions. If you take phrases or sentences from other authors, put them in quotation marks and footnote the source, including the page number. At the end of the essay include a list of the works you have read for the essay, following the style of the essay handouts (books and journal titles underlined, journal articles titles in quotation marks, year and/or volume number for journal articles etc).
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